Brazil presidential runoff pits Lula against Bolsonaro's son, with Amazon fate at stake

Brazilians will vote on Sunday, October 25, to choose their next president in a runoff between leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro. Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round and is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup in 2022. President De La Espriella has publicly backed Flávio Bolsonaro.

The outcome carries direct consequences for the entire Amazon, since Brazil holds 60 percent of the world's largest rainforest. The two candidates hold diametrically opposed visions for managing the region, with effects already visible from previous administrations. Scientists including Johan Rockström and Carlos Nobre warn the forest risks turning into savanna, which would transform it from a major carbon sink into a source of atmospheric warming gases.

“A Flávio Bolsonaro presidency would accelerate that process.”

Flávio Bolsonaro favors large-scale agribusiness in the region and loosening environmental rules, while Lula seeks to continue conservation policies that produced Brazil's lowest deforestation levels in a decade. Between 2003 and 2012, deforestation fell from more than 25,000 square kilometers to just over 4,500 square kilometers under policies started by Lula and continued by Dilma Rousseff.

Experts consulted by La Silla Vacía say 90 percent of deforestation is illegal and tied to cattle ranching and soy, much of it destined for China. Private Amazon properties in Brazil must conserve at least 80 percent of their forest. A Flávio Bolsonaro presidency would accelerate the risk of savannization, according to the experts.

Unlike Colombia, where deforestation depends on specific actors such as armed groups, in Brazil it is determined largely by the sitting president. The article outlines the implications of a possible Bolsonaro victory for biome conservation and regional cooperation.