Bulgaria presidential vote heads to runoff as Black Sea drone incidents shape campaign

Bulgarians voted on Sunday, October 25, in the first round of the presidential election. Exit polls indicate incumbent President Iliana Yotova leads pro-European former Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov, sending the race to a second round on November 1. Approximately 6.5 million registered voters chose among 27 presidential tickets.

Polling figures differ between agencies. Alpha Research put Yotova at 35.3 percent and Gyurov at 32.4 percent, while Myara recorded 35.2 percent for Yotova, 32.2 percent for Gyurov, and 13.4 percent for radical pro-Russian candidate Kostadin Kostadinov. A candidate must win more than half of votes cast, with turnout above half of all eligible voters, to avoid a runoff.

“There is no fundamental ideological divide between Iliana Yotova and Rumen Radev regarding Russia, Ukraine, or the need to end the war through negotiations.”

The campaign has been overshadowed by drone attacks on ships in Bulgarian and Romanian Black Sea territorial waters over the past month. Several vessels were sunk, renewing debate over Bulgaria's relationship with Russia and NATO. Prime Minister Rumen Radev, seen as close to Moscow, appointed Yotova as president after his resignation.

Mediapool notes there is no fundamental ideological divide between Yotova and Radev on Russia, Ukraine, or ending the war through negotiations. Yotova has generally adopted a similar position to Radev. Turnout is estimated at approximately 38 to 40 percent.