Datafolha poll shows record distrust in Brazil's Supreme Court
Nearly half of voters say the STF crisis will influence their 2026 presidential choice as Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro by two points in a runoff.
KEY POINTS
- Datafolha poll shows 48% distrust the STF, a record high since 2012
- 47% of voters say the Court crisis will influence their presidential vote
- Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 46% to 44% in a runoff simulation
- 38% say Lula is harmed by the STF crisis; 31% say Flávio Bolsonaro is harmed
- Distrust in Congress and parties stands at 45%; Presidency at 42%
A Datafolha survey released on September 18 found that 48% of Brazilians distrust the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the highest level since tracking began in 2012. The poll interviewed 2,002 voters between September 15 and 17 with a margin of error of two percentage points.
Almost half of respondents, 47%, said the ongoing crisis at the Court will influence their vote for president. Of those, 36% said it will have a major impact and 11% a minor one, while 49% said it will have no effect.
“This is the first time that distrust in the STF is numerically higher than in the other three institutions.”
In a simulated second-round matchup, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 46% to 44%, a statistical tie within the margin of error. Lula holds a wider 53% to 28% advantage among Bolsa Família recipients.
Regarding which candidacies the STF crisis harms, 38% of voters named Lula and 31% named Flávio Bolsonaro. Another 5% said all candidates are hurt, while 25% saw no damage to any campaign.
The survey also measured distrust in other institutions: 45% distrust Congress, 45% distrust political parties, and 42% distrust the Presidency. The poll was commissioned by Grupo Globo and Folha de S. Paulo.
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