US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged at 3.75% to 4%

The Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday to keep the US benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 3.75% to 4% per year. Ten members of the monetary policy committee voted to maintain the rate, while two voted differently. The outcome matched the prevailing expectation among investors.

The decision came despite accelerating US prices. In September, the consumer price index rose 0.6%, pushing the 12-month accumulated inflation rate to 3.7%. This remains far from the Fed's 2% target, which has not been reached since 2021.

“The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the appropriate monetary policy stance to ensure that inflation returns, in a timely manner, to the 2% target.”

In its post-meeting statement, the central bank said economic activity continues to show robust growth. It acknowledged persistent inflationary pressures and uncertainties linked to the international scenario. The Fed added that accumulating more information will help the committee determine the appropriate monetary policy stance to bring inflation back to the 2% target in a timely manner.

Oil prices, driven by the war between the United States and Iran, are among the factors complicating price control. On Tuesday, the barrel closed trading at US$ 114, the highest level since May. The rise in energy costs also hit American consumers directly, with a gallon of diesel, equivalent to about 3.8 liters, reaching US$ 6.50.

Another pressure factor is the expansion of artificial intelligence investments. Sector companies are mobilizing large volumes of resources.

Earlier on Wednesday, the CME Fedwatch tool showed the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike to 4% to 4.25% had fallen to 7.2%. That probability had reached 64% at the end of September. In its last meeting on September 16, the Fed ended a pause dating back to late last year with a 25 basis point increase.