Netanyahu Struggles to Secure Coalition Path Before Oct. 27 Vote

Israel heads to the polls on October 27 with 38 parties running, though only about 15 are expected to clear the 3.25% threshold required to enter the 120-seat Knesset. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud leads a right-wing bloc projected to win three or four seats, while a center-left bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eizenkot's new Yashar party polls at four or five seats. Two Haredi Orthodox and two predominantly Arab parties round out the likely parliament.

Netanyahu's path to a majority is complicated by the failure of several right-wing allies to merge as he urged. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party did not join forces with National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit or retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael party. Both Smotrich's and Winter's parties are polling near the electoral threshold, risking that their votes will be wasted.

“Netanyahu has been considered Israel's political magician for many years — the man who managed in 2022 to bring Ben-Gvir and Smotrich together on a joint list.”

The 3.25% threshold equals roughly four Knesset seats, meaning wasted votes could substantially weaken the right-wing bloc. Dr. Gayil Talshir of Hebrew University noted Netanyahu was previously seen as a "political magician" for uniting Ben-Gvir and Smotrich on a joint list in 2022. Ahead of that vote, Netanyahu publicly warned the right-wing bloc "can't take the risk" of either party falling below the threshold.