Merz faces ouster risk as key German state elections loom

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confronts the gravest crisis of his 16-month tenure as voters head to the polls on Sunday in two critical state elections. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU polls at just 6%, perilously close to the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation, while the SPD under popular premier Manuela Schwesig has edged ahead of the AfD at 37% to 36%. In Berlin, the CDU risks losing power in the capital, locked in a tight race with the Left Party.

National polls compound the pressure: Merz's personal approval has plummeted to 14% with 78% disapproving, while the CDU/CSU alliance has fallen to 18-20%, trailing the AfD at 29%. The far-right party's near-doubling of the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 triggered the current turmoil.

“His presence is required in Berlin”

Merz cancelled a planned trip to the UN General Assembly in New York, citing the need to remain in Berlin. He has convened a CDU leadership meeting for Sunday at 5 p.m., coinciding with exit polls, to gauge support for his continuation. Senior party figures acknowledge no clear successor exists, complicating any push to replace him.

CSU leader Markus Söder offered only lukewarm backing, stating Merz "stands for reforms" but noting alternatives face identical problems. Meanwhile, Schwesig has campaigned on a "Woman against Blue" slogan, attacking Merz as out of touch while distancing herself from the unpopular federal coalition.

European allies watch with concern as Germany, long a pillar of stability under Angela Merkel's 16-year chancellorship, faces its second leadership crisis in under two years following Olaf Scholz's coalition collapse in November 2024.