Poll shows PP and Vox edge toward absolute majority ahead of November 29 vote

A poll by SW Demoscopia for La Séptima projects Pedro Sánchez's PSOE as the most voted party in the November 29 general election, winning 128 seats compared to 114 for Alberto Núñez Feijóo's PP. Santiago Abascal's Vox would take 63 seats, allowing the combined right-wing bloc to reach 177 representatives, just one above the 176 needed for an absolute majority in Congress.

A separate survey by the DYM Institute for 20 Minutos places the PP between 135 and 139 seats and Vox between 63 and 66, comfortably surpassing the absolute majority threshold. The DYM poll, conducted from November 4 to 6, gives the PSOE an estimated vote share of 27.3 percent and between 104 and 108 seats, down nearly one point from October.

“The sum of both would comfortably exceed the absolute majority set at 176 seats.”

Frente Amplio, led by Ada Colau, would win 13 seats according to La Séptima, while the DYM poll assigns it between 8 and 10 seats based on 5.6 percent of the vote. The PSOE and Frente Amplio together would reach 141 seats in the first survey, leaving the left unable to form a government on its own.

The DYM fieldwork coincided with Óscar Puente's resignation as transport minister following the October 28 Urda accident, which killed 69 people, and with UCO searches linked to the Koldo case. The La Séptima poll noted that its first estimate, published the previous Thursday, had given the PSOE 126 seats, the PP 117, Vox 62, and Frente Amplio 13.

Both surveys indicate an extremely tight parliamentary arithmetic for the right, with the La Séptima poll showing a one-seat cushion over the absolute majority and the DYM poll showing a wider margin. The elections are scheduled for November 29, less than three weeks after the La Séptima estimate was published.