Trump rules out Iran strikes before midterms as oil tops $105

President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social Thursday that the United States will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, reversing days of reports that the Pentagon had ordered Central Command to prepare renewed large-scale strikes. The White House had asked the military to develop options targeting Iranian nuclear, energy and infrastructure sites, with some officials suggesting action could come before Israeli elections in late October.

Brent crude surged above $105 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate topped $93 before paring gains after Trump's statement. Diesel futures and heating oil also jumped, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.32 percent, a level last seen in 2002. US stock futures fell on inflation fears.

“We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.”

Iran has escalated attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, hitting at least nine vessels last week according to UN and Kpler data. Crude flows through the strait dropped from nearly 16 million barrels per day last Friday to roughly half that by Monday, with no refined products transiting Monday compared to a pre-war average of 3.6 million barrels daily.

Trump said the US blockade would remain in full force and claimed oil was flowing in record numbers, a claim contradicted by shipping data. Qatari mediators are still awaiting an Iranian response to a US counterproposal on nuclear concessions. The Atlantic reported limited strikes would not lower gasoline prices or restore Hormuz security before election day.