US midterm elections could reshape Washington and affect Brazil and Argentina

The United States will hold midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, renewing all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 Senate seats, and 36 governorships. Republicans currently control both chambers, though with narrow margins: they hold 218 House seats against 214 Democrats, with one independent usually voting with Republicans and two vacant seats. In the Senate, Republicans have 53 seats against 45 Democrats, plus two independents who usually side with Democrats, while Vice President JD Vance breaks a 50-50 tie.

Political scientist Leonardo Trevisan told TV 247 that the vote could decisively reconfigure the balance of power in Washington and directly affect bilateral relations with Brazil. He said there are two United States: one before Tuesday and another from Tuesday onward, depending on whether Congress changes hands.

“We have two United States: one until Tuesday and another from Tuesday forward.”

Trevisan added that a shift in legislative control, especially in the Senate, would alter the organization of strategic committees such as Foreign Relations. These bodies have investigative and subpoena powers that could require formal explanations from senior US diplomacy and intelligence officials about international operations and articulations.

The interview also addressed the departure of Flávio Bolsonaro from Brazil to the United States, described as an "exfiltration" operation articulated by sectors of the international far right with support from figures such as Senator Marco Rubio. Trevisan asked who benefited from the Brazilian lawmaker's exit, noting it demobilized the militant base and left the Bolsonaro family's political leadership exposed.

In Argentina, Esteban Actis, a doctor in International Relations and researcher at the National University of Rosario, told El Cronista that the result has several implications, especially looking ahead to 2027. He said the key question is whether the United States can again act as lender of last resort for Argentina, as the Treasury did with Scott Bessent in 2025, if the outcome is negative for Republicans.

Actis noted that polls and analysts agree the House will likely remain in Democratic hands, making the Senate the great unknown. He explained that if Trump loses both chambers, his government would enter marked weakness and face Democrats attempting to reverse much of his agenda.