STF ministers feared Bolsonaro release before runoff, columnist says

Supreme Court ministers feared that Kassio Nunes Marques would grant an injunction to release Jair Bolsonaro before the second round of the presidential elections, Revista Fórum reports. The concern was that a decision by the justice, appointed to the court by the former president in 2020, could alter the political scenario during the electoral dispute.

The revelation was made by O Globo columnist Malu Gaspar, almost hidden at the end of an article about the new composition of the Supreme Court and the possibilities of the court releasing the former president.

“The fear was that a decision by the magistrate, appointed to the Supreme Court by the former president in 2020, would change the political scenario during the electoral dispute.”

After Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's reelection and Flávio Bolsonaro's flight to the United States, Bolsonaro's allies are trying to map votes in the Supreme Court to reverse the prison sentence of 27 years and three months imposed for participation in the coup plot. The defense filed a criminal review request, whose rapporteur is Nunes Marques, and seeks to gather at least five favorable votes to cause a tie in the current composition of the court, which has ten ministers.

According to Liberal Party members, three justices are considered more likely to accept the request: Nunes Marques, André Mendonça, and Luiz Fux. The three are seen as members of the bolsonarist wing of the Supreme Court and are not aligned with minister Alexandre de Moraes, rapporteur of the investigations into the coup attempt.

Moraes and Flávio Dino are considered votes against the initiative by the former president's allies. Both participated in the judgment that convicted Bolsonaro in September last year for five crimes, including coup d'état and attempted violent abolition of the Democratic Rule of Law.

With the early retirement of Luís Roberto Barroso in October 2025, the Supreme Court has one vacant seat. In this scenario, Bolsonaro would need five votes to cause a tie, a situation that, as a rule in criminal proceedings, favors the defendant.

If the analysis is postponed until next year and the vacancy is filled, the calculation could change. With 11 ministers, the defense would need at least