Early Voting Surge in US Midterms Exceeds 43 Million Ballots

More than 43 million Americans have already voted in the US midterm elections, with Election Day set for November 3. The University of Florida Election Lab reports that four to five million early votes are being cast each day, a rate much higher than in most previous elections.

Texas has seen the highest above-average turnout rate so far, according to Professor Mike McDonald, who runs the database. More than 5.8 million ballots have been cast in Texas, which has already surpassed its 2022 numbers by around 1.75 million voters.

“Once you start seeing consistency across multiple days of voting and across multiple states, it starts giving us more confidence that whatever we are seeing in terms of relative engagement, that is likely going to carry through to election day.”

Data from states requiring party registration shows Democrats have cast 44% of early ballots, while Republicans account for 31.2%. Another 24.7% of early voters have no party affiliation, though this applies only to roughly half of states that require voter affiliation.

Three states—North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida—require voters to submit their race when registering. Data from these states shows increased voting by Hispanic and black communities, while voting among white people is on par with 2022 early voting figures.

McDonald cautions that early voting data alone cannot reliably predict election outcomes. However, he says consistency across multiple days and states gives more confidence that observed engagement patterns will likely carry through to Election Day.

Overall turnout appears on track to outpace 2020 and possibly 2018, which beat the 1914 record for overall turnout in a midterm election.