Analysis Suggests Venezuela Earthquake Death Toll Far Exceeds Official Count

The Venezuelan government reports that 6,509 people died in consecutive earthquakes in June. An analysis by The New York Times and data from the United States Geological Survey suggest this official figure is likely a considerable undercount.

The USGS estimates an average of 53,000 deaths for the Venezuela earthquakes. This means there is a 50 percent chance the real toll is higher than that figure and a 50 percent chance it is lower.

“The official figure of 6,509 dead is probably a considerable undercount.”

The agency also states there is approximately an 81 percent probability that the actual death toll exceeds 10,000. David Wald, a seismologist at the USGS, said information tends to be more accurate in incidents with a higher number of victims.

A lack of an updated official census from the government makes calculating a reliable death toll difficult. To address this, the USGS uses a model called LandScan developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

LandScan ages the most recent census using independent United Nations figures and variables such as land use, roads, and proximity to urban areas. The New York Times analysis of satellite imagery, ground-level visuals, and building types also casts doubt on the official count.

The Venezuelan government did not respond to messages detailing the findings and requesting comment.