Bolsonaro Leads Lula in Brazil First Round, Runoff Set for Oct 25

Right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round of Brazil's presidential election with roughly 47% of the vote against incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 45%, with nearly 99% of ballots counted. Because neither candidate surpassed the 50% threshold required for an outright win, a runoff is scheduled for October 25.

The result defied pre-election polls from Datafolha and other firms, which had shown Lula holding a slight edge within the margin of error. Bolsonaro, 45, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, opened a wider lead early in the count as results from the conservative-leaning South arrived first, but the gap narrowed significantly as votes from the Workers' Party stronghold in the Northeast were tallied.

“The match starts now. We are in extra time and in it we will convince the Brazilian people.”

Lula, 80, acknowledged the "unexpected" outcome but vowed to win in the "extra time" of the second round. Bolsonaro declared himself "very satisfied" and confident of final victory in three weeks. Approximately 158.7 million Brazilians were eligible to vote in the electronic balloting.

U.S. President Donald Trump monitored the contest "very closely," declining to openly endorse Bolsonaro though allies noted his preference was clear. Trump allies have recently returned to power in Argentina, Colombia, and Peru. Jair Bolsonaro, the candidate's father, is barred from running until 2049 due to a conviction for attempting to overturn the 2022 election.