El Niño matches record 3.07°C Pacific warming anomaly
The climate pattern ties the 2015 peak and is already driving drought and wildfires from Central America to Indonesia.
KEY POINTS
- Niño 3.4 anomaly hits 3.07°C, tying the November 2015 record
- Peak intensity arrived months earlier than the typical winter maximum
- Severe drought, wildfires, and water shortages hitting Central America and Indonesia
- Event developed faster than any previous El Niño on record
- RONI metric shows current event below 2015 record but expected to rise
The current El Niño event has reached a daily sea surface temperature anomaly of 3.07°C in the Niño 3.4 region, statistically tying the all-time record set in November 2015. Scientists note this peak is remarkable because it is occurring months earlier than the typical winter maximum.
The anomaly has developed faster than any previous event on record since the phenomenon began in June. Every strong El Niño in the historical record continued to strengthen after mid-September, suggesting further intensification is likely.
“Every strong El Niño on record has continued to strengthen after mid-September – and there is every reason to think that this one will as well.”
Impacts are already severe across Central America and Indonesia, where drought, wildfires, and water shortages are being reported. In Honduras, livestock are dying amid what locals describe as the worst drought in living memory.
A newer metric, the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which accounts for background global ocean warming, shows the current event remains below the 2015 record. However, researchers expect it could eventually surpass that benchmark as well.
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