Florida governor race tightens as independents lean toward Democrat Jolly

Florida voters will decide the governor's race on Tuesday after polls close. Democrat David Jolly and Republican Byron Donalds are competing in what polls describe as a coin flip. Florida has 13.7 million active registered voters who will determine the outcome.

About one-third of the state's electorate had already voted by Friday. Up to another 4 million people could cast ballots by Tuesday if historical patterns hold.

“We're white-knuckled.”

Independent voters make up a quarter of Florida's electorate. Recent surveys show Jolly leading Donalds among independents by between 14 and 22 points.

Republicans hold a registration advantage of 1.5 million active voters over Democrats. Despite that edge, all three recent polls give Donalds only a slim lead.

Early voting data shows Republicans leading Democrats by just 2.8 percentage points as of Saturday afternoon. That margin is much lower than in the past two general elections.

Democratic voters have already surpassed their full 2022 early and mail-in vote totals in 15 counties. Republicans reached that mark in only four counties.