Global Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Projected to Fall 0.4 Percent in 2026

Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to fall 0.4 percent in 2026 compared with 2025, according to the 2026 Global Carbon Budget published by the Global Carbon Project. The report estimates total fossil CO2 emissions at 38.2 billion tonnes for the year.

The decline is linked to energy supply constraints caused by the Iran war, which has disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20 million barrels of petroleum and crude oil pass through the strait daily, representing a quarter of global maritime oil trade.

“A reduction driven in part by geopolitical crises is not a sustainable climate solution.”

Oil emissions are expected to drop 1.9 percent, while gas emissions are projected to dip 0.3 percent. Coal emissions, by contrast, are forecast to rise 0.6 percent.

Renewable energy growth also contributed to the decrease, with solar, wind, and electric vehicles covering two-thirds of the rise in global energy demand. China leads this expansion and accounts for half of global renewable additions.

Report authors caution that the drop is a short-term blip rather than the start of a long-term decline. They say clean technologies are not expanding fast enough to achieve a durable reduction in fossil CO2.

Atmospheric carbon concentrations still increased in 2026 despite the lower emissions. Land-use change emissions, including deforestation, are projected to rise from 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025 to 43.3 billion tonnes this year.

More than 140 international scientists contributed to the report. They estimate the remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius at 150 billion tonnes.