Ibovespa rises 0.46% after four-day losing streak as election polls tighten
Brazilian stocks rebound with banks leading gains while Atlas/Bloomberg poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in technical tie ahead of Sunday's vote.
KEY POINTS
- Ibovespa rises 0.46% to 183,827.59 points, ending four-day losing streak
- Itaú Unibanco and Banco do Brasil shares lead gains
- Atlas/Bloomberg poll shows Lula at 45.3%, Flávio Bolsonaro at 42.2% for first round
- Runoff simulation shows Flávio Bolsonaro 47.7%, Lula 47.6% — statistical tie
- First round voting set for October 4, runoff on October 25 if needed
The Ibovespa closed up 0.46% at 183,827.59 points on Tuesday, snapping four consecutive sessions of declines that had erased more than 2% from the index. Itaú Unibanco and Banco do Brasil shares provided the main support for the rebound.
Trading occurred amid a heavy macroeconomic calendar featuring Brazilian inflation, unemployment, formal job creation and credit data, alongside U.S. Treasury volatility that pushed the 10-year yield to 5.2425%.
“Until Sunday, investors will stay focused on electoral polls, which are showing a very tight race and any surprise on Sunday could price into the Ibovespa starting next week.”
A new Atlas/Bloomberg poll released Tuesday shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions with 45.3%, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 42.2%. In a simulated runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro edges ahead with 47.7% to Lula's 47.6%, within the margin of error.
Market analysts said investors remain in wait-and-see mode until Sunday's first round, with any surprise likely to move prices next week. The first round is scheduled for October 4, with a potential runoff on October 25.
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