Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Tied in Polls Two Weeks Before Brazil Election

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in voting intention polls released this week, two weeks before the October 4 first round. Datafolha puts Lula at 39% and Flávio at 36% for the first round, within the two-point margin of error. In a simulated runoff, Lula leads 46% to 44%, also a technical tie.

Other institutes show varying pictures. BTG/Nexus gave Lula a narrow 47%-46% runoff edge on September 14, while Quaest had Flávio numerically ahead 42%-40% earlier in September. Real Time Big Data found them exactly tied at 44% each in a runoff as of September 1. CNT/MDA is an outlier, showing Lula with 40.5% to Flávio's 30.4% in the first round.

“Each percentage point counts double when only two weeks remain for millions of voters to decide the country's direction at the ballot box.”

Regionally, Datafolha shows Lula dominating the Northeast with 56% versus 26% for Flávio. Flávio leads in the South (45% to 27%) and holds narrow advantages in the Southeast and the combined Center-West/North. The national race remains a dead heat.

The campaign unfolds amid a Supreme Court crisis involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes and former banker Daniel Vorcaro of Banco Master. An extraordinary session on September 15 featured public clashes among justices. Pollsters are now testing whether the judicial turmoil influences voter choices.

With smaller candidates holding roughly 16% of valid votes combined, both frontrunners hope to capture "useful votes" in the final stretch. Analysts suggest Flávio may benefit more from right-leaning voters consolidating behind him.