Lula leads in nine countries as overseas voting begins for Brazil election
Early results from Asia and Oceania show the incumbent ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in most locations, while the PL candidate leads in Japan and the Middle East.
KEY POINTS
- Overseas voting began Oct 3 in Oceania/Asia with 918,876 registered voters in 104 countries.
- Lula led in 9 countries (incl. Australia, China, South Korea, NZ); Flávio Bolsonaro led in 6 (incl. Japan, Thailand, Philippines).
- In Japan, Flávio won 71.59% vs Lula 15.20%; in New Zealand Lula won 70.48%.
- Lula's average share rose ~4.6 points in 9 fully-counted sites vs 2022; Flávio retained ~99.5% of his father's 2022 base.
- Official TSE results start at 17:00 Brasília time after domestic polls close.
Voting for Brazil's 2026 presidential election opened on Saturday in Oceania and Asia, with 918,876 registered voters abroad across 104 countries. Polls closed first in New Zealand and Australia before moving across Asia.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) won the most valid votes in nine countries, including Australia, China, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Estonia. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) led in six: Japan, Thailand, the Philippines, Taiwan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
“Although I am not from the PT, right now we don't have another left-wing candidate with a real chance at the presidency. I prefer to go straight for the one who has a chance and is from the left, to block the far right.”
In Japan, home to one of the largest Brazilian communities abroad, Flávio Bolsonaro secured 71.59% of valid votes against Lula's 15.20%. Conversely, Lula reached 70.48% in New Zealand and 65.70% across three Chinese cities, up sharply from 48.54% in 2022.
A Forum analysis of nine fully counted locations showed Lula's average vote share rose 4.59 percentage points from 2022, while Flávio Bolsonaro retained nearly all of his father Jair Bolsonaro's previous support, dipping only 0.48 points. A broader Fórum study of 23 comparable districts found Lula up 2.76 points overall.
Total valid votes in the 23 comparable districts rose 10.73% to 48,033. Lula's raw vote count grew 23.49% to 12,834, outpacing the 9.55% increase for the Bolsonaro ticket. Official TSE results begin releasing at 5:00 PM Brasília time after voting ends in Brazil.
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