Lula raises Bolsa Familia by 15% citing inflation, 17 days before election

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced a 15.04% increase to the Bolsa Familia cash-transfer program on Thursday, raising the minimum benefit from 600 reais to 691 reais and the average payment from 675 reais to 777 reais. The new amounts take effect in October, with payments beginning on October 19, six days before a potential runoff.

The government says the percentage matches the accumulated INPC inflation index from March 2023 through August 2026, framing the move as a legally required inflation adjustment rather than a real increase. Planning Secretary Bruno Moretti confirmed the calculation basis.

“The criterion adopted for the update was the accumulated INPC variation between March 2023 and August 2026, measured at 15.04%, so it represents a mere mechanism for recomposing accumulated inflation, not a real increase.”

The announcement comes 17 days before the first-round vote on October 4, as polls show Lula losing ground among low-income voters. A Quaest survey released September 14 showed Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead in a runoff simulation for the first time, 42% to 40%, within the margin of error.

Flávio Bolsonaro criticized the timing and called the increase "merreca" (paltry), while also pledging to maintain both the program and the adjustment if elected. His party colleague, Deputy Zé Trovão, challenged the decree at the Superior Electoral Court, but Justice André Mendonça dismissed the petition the same day.

Supreme Court Justice Gilmar Mendes ruled on Friday that the decree does not violate electoral law. He determined the adjustment is a periodic monetary correction mandated by Law 14.601/2023, not the creation of a new benefit or expansion of eligibility, and therefore falls outside the ban on distributing benefits during election years.

Analysts say the electoral impact will likely be limited to shoring up Lula's existing base rather than winning new voters. Instituto Ideia founder Maurício Moura noted the beneficiary population already leans heavily toward the incumbent.

The decree carries an estimated fiscal impact of 5.8 billion reais in 2026 and 22.7 billion reais in 2027, according to the Planning Ministry.