Quaest Poll: Tarcísio Leads São Paulo, Paes Nears First-Round Win in Rio
Final pre-election surveys show São Paulo governor at 60% valid votes and Rio mayor at 49%, both approaching outright victories.
KEY POINTS
- Tarcísio de Freitas leads São Paulo with 60% valid votes vs 36% for Haddad
- Eduardo Paes holds 49% valid votes in Rio, near first-round threshold
- Polls conducted Oct 2-3 with ~3,700 and ~3,200 voters respectively
- Both races show stability since late September surveys
- Runoff simulations favor incumbents in both states
A Quaest poll released Saturday, the eve of Brazil's first-round elections, shows São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) with 60% of valid votes against 36% for Fernando Haddad (PT), indicating a likely first-round victory. In total votes including blanks and undecideds, Tarcísio holds 44% versus Haddad's 26%, stable since the previous survey on September 29.
In Rio de Janeiro, Mayor Eduardo Paes (PSD) leads with 49% of valid votes, nine points ahead of Douglas Ruas (PL) at 40%, placing him near the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos) trails with 6%.
“The likely voter model combines turnout profile and individual motivation.”
The surveys, commissioned by TV Globo, interviewed 3,702 voters in São Paulo and 3,204 in Rio de Janeiro between October 2 and 3, with a two-point margin of error. Quaest's "likely voter" model weights responses by turnout propensity.
A simulated runoff in São Paulo shows Tarcísio at 49% and Haddad at 29%. In Rio, a scenario without Garotinho shows Paes at 36% and Ruas at 29% in total votes.
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