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Trump's Record Low Polls Signal Midterm Disaster for Republicans

Polling averages show 60-66% disapproval for Trump, driving Democratic gains in deep-red states while battleground races remain tight.

Sources: i, MSNBC, Lifo, The Independent4 sources ↓|· 1 min read
Trump's Record Low Polls Signal Midterm Disaster for Republicans
Photo: i

KEY POINTS

  • Trump averages 60-66% disapproval, worst ever for incumbent at midterm
  • Democrats favored to flip both House and Senate
  • Independents lean Democratic by 25 points; 70% say Trump factors into vote
  • Democrats surging in deep-red states (AK, KS, NE, MS) but not battlegrounds
  • Voters oppose Trump immigration, economic, and tariff policies per issue polling

Polling averages indicate President Trump faces historically low approval ratings ahead of the November midterms, with 60% of Americans disapproving his performance and a Reuters/Ipsos poll recording 66% disapproval. University of Southampton professor Jason Reifler states this is the worst midterm polling for any incumbent president on record.

Democrats are forecast to win control of both the House and Senate, reversing prior expectations of Republican retention. Seven in ten voters say their assessment of Trump influences their ballot, while independent voters lean Democratic by a 25-point margin, according to a PBS/NPR/Marist survey.

“This is 100% about Trump.”

— Charlie Cook, veteran election handicapper

Durham University professor David Andersen notes Republicans cannot find a silver lining in issue polling, with voters opposing Trump's immigration, economic, and tariff policies. Veteran handicapper Charlie Cook describes a "red undertow" where Democrats surge in deep-red states like Alaska, Kansas, Nebraska, and Mississippi, though gains are absent in blue and purple battlegrounds.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries attributes the shift to broken Republican promises on costs, Medicaid cuts, and Middle East involvement. Cook emphasizes the rejection is entirely about Trump, with zero data suggesting voter enthusiasm for the Democratic Party itself.

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