S&P to Decide Romania Rating on Oct 2 Amid Negative Outlook

S&P Global Ratings is scheduled to publish a new sovereign rating assessment for Romania on October 2. The agency currently rates Romania at BBB-, the lowest investment-grade tier, with a negative outlook signaling potential downgrade risks.

A downgrade to junk status would likely raise borrowing costs for the state and, over time, for households and businesses. All three major agencies — S&P, Fitch, and Moody's — keep Romania at the bottom of investment grade with negative outlooks.

“The difference between investment grade and junk is not just a letter, but the price the state and economy pay for access to capital.”

Fitch projects the budget deficit will fall to 5.9% of GDP in 2026 from 9.3% in 2024, but remain among the highest for BBB-rated peers. Public debt is seen reaching 64.5% of GDP by 2028, up from 59.3% at end-2025.

Analysts say an additional fiscal adjustment of about 1.5% of GDP is needed to stabilize the debt trajectory. Romania's rating is supported by EU membership and associated capital inflows but constrained by high deficits, rising debt, inflation, and political fragmentation.