State legislative, governor races heat up with Trump agenda at stake

Voters in 46 states will elect more than 6,100 legislators this November, covering about 83% of all legislative seats nationwide, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Thirty-six states will also hold gubernatorial elections.

Outside groups aligned with both major parties have pledged heavy spending to control closely divided legislatures in at least six states. Parties are also fighting to make or break supermajorities that allow enacting laws with little dissent.

“The state races also carry significant implications for Trump's agenda, because the elected officials can either aid or resist his immigration enforcement actions, social safety net limitations and efforts to alter voting procedures.”

Competitive governor races in several states could give one party a trifecta — control of both legislative chambers and the executive office. State control shapes policy on abortion, school choice, data centers and law-enforcement surveillance.

Historically, the president's party loses an average of 7.9% of state legislative seats in midterms. In 2018, Republicans lost 8.7% under Trump. A similar result this year could flip chambers and alter Trump's ability to advance his agenda on immigration enforcement, social safety net limits and voting procedure changes.

Election outcomes in a few states may also affect congressional redistricting for 2028, adding another layer of long-term consequence to this cycle's contests.