Super El Niño raises drought and water shortage concerns for North Okanagan in 2027

Vernon’s newly formed city council met for the first time on Tuesday, November 10, and received a warning about water shortages heading into next year. Hayley Dosser, a scientist with the Canadian Centre for Climate Services, presented her findings during the council’s inaugural meeting.

Dosser described a super El Niño building in the tropical Pacific Ocean since September as the most intense such event on record. She said sea surface temperatures have now passed three degrees Celsius above the baseline, placing the region in a very strong El Niño.

“This particular El Niño event is quite exceptional. It is very likely to be unprecedented, potentially by a substantial margin.”

The scientist explained that this climate pattern shifts weather beyond the Pacific and can cause extreme conditions similar to those seen in the winters of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16. She noted that past El Niño events have cost Canada billions of dollars, though impacts are generally less severe in Canada than elsewhere.

Dosser called this particular event exceptional and said it is very likely to be unprecedented, potentially by a substantial margin. In Canada, the strongest direct weather effects usually occur in winter and spring, bringing milder, drier winters with less snow and warmer, drier springs.

She warned that North Okanagan’s snowpack and spring precipitation will help determine the region’s drought situation in 2027 and any water restrictions that may follow. Dosser presented a three-month forecast from December to February indicating above-normal average temperatures across the province.

Both The Daily News and Nelson Star published the same report on November 11 at 00:21, with identical wording and details.