Trump's Midterm Defeat Leaves Asia Facing a Constrained but Unpredictable US

The November 3 midterm elections ended unified Republican government in the United States. When the new Congress convenes in January, Democrats will take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The shift leaves President Donald Trump with a significantly more complicated domestic political situation.

For Asia's export-driven economies, the central concern is Trump's sweeping and volatile tariff regime, enacted within months of his inauguration. The US also threatens additional tariffs under ongoing investigations, adding pressure to regional trade.

Trump is scheduled to visit Manila from November 16 to 18 for the annual ASEAN summit. Immediately afterward, he will attend the two-day Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Shenzhen, where he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping for their third meeting this year and second in China. He will then host the G-20 leaders' summit in the United States on December 14 to 15.

Joseph Chinyong Liow, dean and professor in East Asian Affairs at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, expects a long spell of unpredictability. He said he would be very surprised if Trump takes a reconciliatory turn in his politics.

According to Reuters, analysts believe Trump's weakened political position may give Beijing additional leverage in upcoming trade negotiations. This could allow Xi to secure concessions that would previously have been more difficult to obtain.

Trump's trade policies have been particularly confrontational toward China. After returning to the White House in 2025, he imposed tariffs reaching triple-digit levels on Chinese goods, arguing that the trade imbalance harmed American interests. American voters have expressed growing frustration with living costs, which analysts say has been aggravated by the administration's tariffs and trade disputes.

China may have more room to negotiate with Trump over the next two years. At the same time, Beijing faces the possibility that Trump's eventual successor will adopt a much tougher approach toward China.