UN warns world on track for 2.8 degrees of warming by 2100

The world is heading toward 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century under current climate policies, according to a new UN report. The projection comes from the UN Environment Programme's annual emissions gap assessment.

The figure marks a deterioration from last year's estimate of up to 2.5 degrees, driven largely by the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and upward revisions to historical emissions data.

“It is a historic failure of political leadership.”

If all countries fully implement their announced climate measures, warming would reach 2.6 degrees by 2100. Even in the most optimistic scenario, where all climate plans are met and neutrality targets achieved, temperatures would still rise by 2.1 degrees.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the world can no longer avoid exceeding the 1.5-degree limit, calling it a historic failure of political leadership. He stressed that devastating consequences do not mean efforts should be abandoned.

The 1.5-degree goal remains officially unbroken only because the threshold would have to be exceeded over the long term. The report was released three weeks before the 31st UN climate conference, scheduled for November 9-20 in Turkey.