Hot October CPI Report Raises Odds of December Fed Rate Hike

The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4 percent in October, exceeding the 0.24 percent consensus forecast and the 0.3 percent expected by economists, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The reading was cooler than September’s 0.6 percent monthly increase but signaled an accelerating inflation trend. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.3 percent against forecasts for 0.2 percent.

Food prices jumped 0.5 percent, energy rose 0.7 percent, and gasoline gained 1.0 percent. Housing costs increased 0.3 percent.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said hours before the release that he was leaning toward supporting a 25 basis point increase at the December meeting. He added that if October data matched recent readings, a stronger policy move might be needed.

Bitcoin traded near $73,500 on Tuesday morning, down about 1 percent over the past day and roughly $32,000 below its price one year ago. The cryptocurrency had held near $74,300 before the 8:30 a.m. ET release and dropped to about $73,400 right after the print.

Two- to five-year Treasury yields rose at least 10 basis points after the report, and traders boosted bets on a half-point hike when the Fed meets on December 9. The report will not carry an annual inflation rate because a government shutdown in October 2025 prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics from collecting a full set of prices.