IMF, World Bank Meet in Bangkok Amid Iran War, Energy Shock

Finance ministers and central bankers from IMF and World Bank member countries begin annual meetings in Bangkok on Monday, the first gathering outside Washington in three years. The talks unfold against a backdrop of widening conflict in the Middle East, where the U.S.-Israeli-led war with Iran has entered its eighth month.

Iran's prolonged partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off roughly 20 percent of global oil supply, pushing Brent crude prices about 30 percent above pre-war levels. World Bank President Ajay Banga said growth had held up better than feared initially, but pressures are building again from soaring diesel and fertilizer costs.

“The environment was right for most countries to adopt a 'prudently hawkish' posture.”

A looming "super" El Niño weather pattern could cause an estimated 450,000 heat-related deaths, adding further strain. The G7 has agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump ahead of November elections.

Trump announced a deal with Russia on Friday to supply additional diesel and temporarily waive sanctions aimed at depriving Moscow of war revenue, drawing sharp criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. More than 1 billion barrels have been released from commercial inventories since the war began on February 28.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is notably absent, citing domestic engagements, a move that may frustrate counterparts at the G20 meetings the U.S. leads this year. Tensions also persist over U.S. sanctions on the International Criminal Court.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged a "prudently hawkish" posture for most countries. The U.S. Federal Reserve began a new tightening cycle in September with a quarter-point rate hike, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan face similar pressures. U.S. national debt has reached $40 trillion, contributing to rising bond yields alongside massive borrowing for AI infrastructure.