Study: Wealth taxes could prevent up to 30 million deaths by 2030
ISGlobal-led research in The Lancet models fiscal policies to offset development aid cuts.
KEY POINTS
- Lancet study models fiscal policies to offset development aid cuts
- 3% wealth tax on large fortunes could avert up to 29.5 million deaths by 2030
- Aid cuts projected to cause 7.6 million additional deaths, 1.4 million under-5
- Higher aid historically linked to 24% lower mortality, 33% for under-5s
- Multiple tax scenarios generate sufficient revenue to compensate aid reductions
A study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and published in The Lancet finds that taxing large fortunes and other fiscal measures could avert between 6.6 and 29.5 million deaths in low- and lower-middle-income countries by 2030.
Researchers analyzed mortality and Official Development Assistance data from 59 countries between 2002 and 2021. Higher aid levels correlated with a 24 percent mortality reduction overall and 33 percent for children under five.
“These fiscal measures could generate significant resources to finance development and health programs.”
If current aid cuts continue, the study projects roughly 7.6 million additional deaths by 2030, including 1.4 million children under five.
The team modeled several revenue-raising policies: a 3 percent wealth tax on large fortunes, a global minimum tax on multinational corporations, financial transaction taxes, carbon levies, cryptocurrency taxes, and sovereign debt interest levies.
A 3 percent wealth tax alone was associated with up to 29.5 million deaths avoided. A global minimum corporate tax could prevent about 20 million deaths, while a financial transaction tax could avert around 24 million.
ISGlobal, backed by the "la Caixa" Foundation, conducted the work with partner economics and health institutions. The findings come as donor nations shift resources toward military spending and face rising debt.
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