Gulf Oil Flows Through Hormuz Rebound to 80% of Pre-War Levels

Gulf producers moved an average of 13.1 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz last week, according to Kpler data cited by all three outlets. That volume represents just under 80% of the 17.1 million bpd flowing before the war began on February 28.

The rebound relies on US Navy-escorted tanker shuttles, vessels transiting with tracking systems switched off, and ship-to-ship transfers. Kpler director Matt Smith said the strong volumes show Iran is losing influence over the waterway.

“Given such a strong volume passing through the strait, it is clear Iran is losing its influence over it.”

Saudi Arabia has shifted barrels back toward Hormuz after Houthi drone attacks earlier this month disrupted the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea. Yanbu loadings have resumed, though throughput remains below pre-attack capacity.

Total Middle Eastern crude flows, including routes around the strait, have recovered to 98% of pre-war levels, JPMorgan estimates. However, global inventories have fallen by roughly 2 billion barrels during the conflict.

Brent crude traded near $103 a barrel on September 30, nearly 50% above the pre-war level of roughly $72. UAE fuel prices have surged, with Super 98 up 46.7% and diesel up 58.1% since March.

The US is committing substantial military resources to protect shipping. Analysts warn the arrangement is fragile; a wider escalation or further infrastructure strikes could rapidly disrupt supply.